Humans, whether by design or evolution, are basically hunters and gatherers. That is the pattern that generates all the behavioral variations of modern times. With the emergence of a technoeconomy capable of self-contained autonomy we have been given a radically new jungle in which to find such a niche. This is a Speculation on that jungle and that niche.
First. I am a believer in instrumentalism. Reality is theory-laden in the perceptions of it generated by human beings. When the theory changes, as TS Kuhn put it, the facts change. Reality is therefore soft, mutable within fairly narrow boundaries of reliable perception. A stone, to refute Berkeley again, is a stone however one explains its existence. It is important to note that theory-laden reality is hard reality compared to certain schemes of the real that exist today.
Second. Artificial Intelligence is in its infancy. It is impossible to accurately gauge its socioeconomic impact at this time. I can only guess at the possibilities. This blog is no more than an informed flight of imagination. Bear with me.
When speaking of innovation in market economies two factors, cause and effect, must be taken into account; entrepreneurs, cause, and creative destruction, effect.
There are two classes of entrepreneurs, market or arbitrage, who profit from markets 'moving' plenty to scarcity, and creative, disruptors who change market dynamics.
There are also two types of creative destruction, managed, where dislocation is systemically discouraged and compensated and re-employment is encouraged, and market, where the creative destruction process is allowed to run its course.
It is the position of this blog that disruptors are in range of destroying the arbitrage function of markets through chaos and must be inhibited and that creative destruction due to artificial intelligence will be so extensive and intensive that it must be managed by inhibitions and empowerments or society will suffer serious, maybe irreparable damage.
What does the economic future look like? The capability theoretically exists for an autonomous self-contained economy driven by artificial intelligence and composed purely of machines. Robots do not buy cars so there are severe demand limits on the development of this economy which will come into being in fits and starts as we figure out, as hunters and gatherers, how to harvest such an ecosystem.
A niche potentially exists for bespoke production, custom demand manufacture, driven by imagination and quality, that could fill gaps in pure machine production suitable for the employment of human talent empowered by AI.
We are on the edge of a tall cliff of creative destruction. We can simply scream all the way down, do a half-gainer, or deploy the parachute of managed change. I strongly suggest managed change.
Do Well and Be Well.
First. I am a believer in instrumentalism. Reality is theory-laden in the perceptions of it generated by human beings. When the theory changes, as TS Kuhn put it, the facts change. Reality is therefore soft, mutable within fairly narrow boundaries of reliable perception. A stone, to refute Berkeley again, is a stone however one explains its existence. It is important to note that theory-laden reality is hard reality compared to certain schemes of the real that exist today.
Second. Artificial Intelligence is in its infancy. It is impossible to accurately gauge its socioeconomic impact at this time. I can only guess at the possibilities. This blog is no more than an informed flight of imagination. Bear with me.
When speaking of innovation in market economies two factors, cause and effect, must be taken into account; entrepreneurs, cause, and creative destruction, effect.
There are two classes of entrepreneurs, market or arbitrage, who profit from markets 'moving' plenty to scarcity, and creative, disruptors who change market dynamics.
There are also two types of creative destruction, managed, where dislocation is systemically discouraged and compensated and re-employment is encouraged, and market, where the creative destruction process is allowed to run its course.
It is the position of this blog that disruptors are in range of destroying the arbitrage function of markets through chaos and must be inhibited and that creative destruction due to artificial intelligence will be so extensive and intensive that it must be managed by inhibitions and empowerments or society will suffer serious, maybe irreparable damage.
What does the economic future look like? The capability theoretically exists for an autonomous self-contained economy driven by artificial intelligence and composed purely of machines. Robots do not buy cars so there are severe demand limits on the development of this economy which will come into being in fits and starts as we figure out, as hunters and gatherers, how to harvest such an ecosystem.
A niche potentially exists for bespoke production, custom demand manufacture, driven by imagination and quality, that could fill gaps in pure machine production suitable for the employment of human talent empowered by AI.
We are on the edge of a tall cliff of creative destruction. We can simply scream all the way down, do a half-gainer, or deploy the parachute of managed change. I strongly suggest managed change.
Do Well and Be Well.
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